The conditions are turning favourable for rate cuts in India and the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) easing cycle is likely to begin from February, according to a report on Monday.

The central bank’s neutral policy stance gives it flexibility to cut rates.

Food inflation, the main roadblock for rate cuts, is expected to ease given healthy agricultural production, according to a Crisil Intelligence report.

While monetary easing is underway in several key economies, uncertainty regarding the extent of rate cuts has risen. Trump’s victory brings with it expectations of tariffs increasing inflationary pressures and tax cuts adding to fiscal stress

In India, domestic financial conditions improved marginally on-month in December. The CRISIL Financial Conditions Index (FCI), an indicator capturing parameters from India’s major financial market segments, rose to 0.5 from 0.4 in November.

With food inflation having peaked out and the government trying to accelerate capex spending, the Indian economy is growing steadily and upcoming Union Budget and Donald Trump 2.0 hold key to market returns, according to a report on Monday.

Rural demand is showing a sustained recovery. The festival and wedding season has provided boost to demand for travel, jewellery, watches, quick service restaurant (QSR), footwear, apparel and durables, according to the report by PL Capital Group - Prabhudas Lilladher.

“We are already witnessing uptick in ordering momentum in Railways, Defense, Power, Data centres etc. the execution of which will accelerate growth in FY26 and beyond,” said Amnish Aggarwal, Director, Institutional Research.

“We expect a growth-oriented budget with an attempt to pump prime the economy and incentivise the middle class to increase spending,” he added.

The Indian stock market opened in red on Monday amid weak global cues as selling was seen in the realty, metal, FMCG, PSU bank and auto sectors.

At around 9.34 am, Sensex was trading at 76,821.43 after dropping 557.48 points or 0.72 per cent, while Nifty was trading at 23,257.65 after declining 173.85 points or 0.74 per cent.

On the National Stock Exchange (NSE), 532 stocks were trading in green, while 1,744 stocks were in red.

Nifty Bank was down 279 points or 0.57 per cent at 48,455.15. Nifty Midcap 100 index was trading at 53,934.30 after dropping 651.45 points or 1.19 per cent. Nifty Smallcap 100 index was at 17,472.70 after declining 172.85 points or 0.98 per cent.

According to experts, market will continue to be under pressure from the strong headwinds.

After weeks of enduring air quality in the "very poor" category, Delhi witnessed an improvement, with the Air Quality Index (AQI) recorded at 282, placing it in the "poor" category on Monday at 8 a.m., as per the Central Pollution Control Board (CPCB).

Despite the improvement, a cold wave continues to grip the capital, accompanied by dense fog that has significantly reduced visibility during the morning and night hours.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) issued a yellow alert for dense fog on Monday, cautioning residents about potential disruptions.

The day began with chilly winds, and the IMD forecast predicts a mainly clear sky, with smog or shallow fog likely to develop during the evening and night. The maximum temperature is expected to hover around 19 degrees Celsius, while the minimum could drop to 7 degrees Celsius.

Driven by strong fundamentals and resilient economy, the Indian equity markets are likely to see another record-breaking year for initial public offerings (IPOs), according to reports.

The fundraising activity in the country has been broad-based across sectors so far. Domestic investments provided resilience amid geopolitical risks and market volatility, according to a Kotak Investment Banking report.

According to the investment bank, deal sizes are consistently increasing across products, with more than 30 deals worth $500 million last year. Multinational companies (MNCs) prefer India as a listing destination by making their subsidiaries debut on Indian bourses.

A thick layer of fog enveloped Delhi-NCR on Saturday morning, with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) predicting cloudy skies and light rain in the region.

The cold conditions are expected to persist, offering no immediate relief from dense fog and cold waves.

The IMD has forecast cloudy skies with light rain or drizzle during the morning hours on January 11 and 12. Over the past 24 hours, the city experienced a sharp drop in temperature, with readings dipping as low as 1 degree Celsius. Maximum and minimum temperatures were recorded between 18-22 degrees Celsius and 6-8 degrees Celsius, respectively.

Although the fog is expected to clear gradually as the day progresses, light rain could prolong its impact. The minimum temperature in the capital is predicted to drop further to around 5 degrees Celsius in the coming days.

The Reserve Bank has lifted its ban on the 'sanction and disbursal of loans' by Asirvad Micro Finance and DMI Finance Pvt Ltd, in a big relief to the two microfinance companies, according to an RBI circular issued on Wednesday.

The RBI had in October, 2024, taken action against four NBFCs -- Asirvad Micro Finance Ltd, Arohan Financial Services Ltd, DMI Finance and Navi Finserv -- citing material supervisory concerns, and asked these entities to cease and desist sanction and disbursal of loans, effective from October 21.

Two of these companies have now been allowed to resume their lending operations, according to an RBI statement.

Despite a slowdown in real GDP growth, per capita nominal GDP in India is expected to increase significantly in FY25, by at least Rs 35,000 more than FY23, economists have said.

The first advance estimate (AE) of GDP for FY25 by the National Statistical Office (NSO) indicates GDP growth at 6.4 per cent. The gross value added (GVA) growth is also estimated at 6.4 per cent. Nominal GDP growth is estimated to remain flattish, increasing by 9.7 per cent in FY25 (9.6 per cent in FY24).

“Historically, the difference between RBI’s estimate and NSO’s estimate is always in the range of 20-30 bps and hence the 6.4 per cent estimate of FY25 is along expected and reasonable lines. We, however, believe that GDP growth for FY25 could be around 6.3 per cent, with downward bias,” said Dr Soumya Kanti Ghosh, Group Chief Economic Adviser, State Bank of India.

“Buoyed by robust policy measures and overlapping phy-gital public infra creation, in lockstep with formalisation of finance, Agriculture and Allied Activities are likely to grow by 3.8 per cent in FY25 (1.4 per cent previous year),” Dr Ghosh mentioned.

The domestic benchmark indices opened flat on Wednesday as selling was seen in the auto, IT, PSU bank, financial service, FMCG, metal, realty and media sectors.

At around 9.28 am, Sensex was trading at 78,014.77 after dropping 184.34 points or 0.24 per cent, while Nifty was trading at 23,662.2 after declining 45.70 points or 0.19 per cent.

On the National Stock Exchange (NSE), 749 stocks were trading in green, while 826 stocks were in red.

Nifty Bank was down 117.25 points or 0.23 per cent at 50,084.90. Nifty Midcap 100 index was trading at 56,405.35 after dropping 463.95 points or 0.82 per cent. Nifty Smallcap 100 index was at 18,568.10 after declining 105.35 points or 0.56 per cent.

According to market experts, the trend of strong US macros weakening emerging markets is continuing. The US 10-year bond yield has spiked to 4.67 per cent on better-than-expected jobs numbers and indications of the services sector doing very well.

According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), Delhi is bracing for a sharp dip in temperatures and severe weather conditions as a cold wave is expected to hit the national capital in the second week of January.

Temperatures could plummet to as low as 5 degrees Celsius.

On Wednesday, a minimum temperature of 8 degrees Celsius is expected, with the maximum temperature plunging not above 16 degrees Celsius as the day progresses.

Meanwhile, Delhi-NCR's battle with the deteriorating Air Quality Index (AQI) continues as Delhi wakes up to an AQI clocked at 322 as per the Central Government's Sameer App.