New Delhi, March 25
India’s macroeconomic situation has bottomed out, and the country is set to see GDP growth around 6.5 per cent for the year ahead, according to a Bernstein note on Tuesday.
Amid geo-political risks like the possibility of a US recession and reciprocal tariffs, Bernstein’s India strategy offers a positive outlook for the economy in the coming year.
“Despite global uncertainties, India is well-positioned to benefit if a US recession materialises,” said the global brokerage in its note.
India’s growth trajectory has often been independent of the US economy, and past experiences show that India has typically recovered ahead of the US during economic slowdowns.
While the broader markets have faced corrections, India is expected to benefit as the global trade environment stabilises.
The Bernstein note maintained a positive view on the Nifty index, setting a year-end target of 26,500, though caution is advised as market sentiment could fluctuate based on global events.
A potential US recession could also lead to lower commodity prices, which could be beneficial for India, said Bernstein.
Commodities like crude oil, copper, aluminium, and steel, which are linked to US economic performance, might see suppressed prices, it added.